[LMBTO] The Eurovision 2016 Final - My Thoughts and Rankings...

After 254 days of the official Eurovision 2016 season (if you take day 1 as being 1st September), we have the following 26 countries in this year's Final, all in their running order as decided by the SVT producers and approved by the EBU.  All apart from Sweden, who didn't have the best random draw months ago (although it could have been far worse):

Now there will be loads to analyse by all the major Eurovision websites about what being up in a certain position means, can an act win from there, will it do better or worse because of who sings before or after it etc.  Now you've read my stuff long enough to know that I'm not a major stats guy, a lot of my articles are purely subjective, stuff from gut feelings and what I like so I'm not going to do a major step-by-step review on what this draw means.  What I will do is a summary on who will feel quite happy with their lot and who got a bum wrap...

As soon as this happened, Laura Tesoro was always destined to open the show with her uptempo, slick funk extravaganza - it will look amazing on stage, get the party started and hopefully will have viewers immediately tuned into the show.  Belgium aren't going to win from there but I am sure that SVT were delighted that they can have a 'party tune' in each half of the Final (Barei is in 19th slot, remember?).

This was the moment that 'who will be placed in the death slot' was determined!  Position number two, the starting position from which no artist has ever won in 61 shows, was a easy decision for the SVT producers to make - give it to a ballad to make it different to "What's The Pressure", even better give it to a country who have reached their first Final ever and who won't really complain too much about where they are put.  Enter Czech Republic!  Sorry Gabriela, power out "I stand" for all you are worth but don't expect too much from there...

The Netherlands' chances of a surprise sleeper hit effectively came to an end once first half was drawn out too - placed third to sing is really, really early.  Does this suggest that it didn't finish that highly in the SF?  No matter how charismatic you are or how quirky and risky having a ten second break in your song is, singing there will not bring you that amount of memorability once you have 23 other songs after you.

4th, 5th and 6th slots have almost certainly killed off any hopes of a decent result for Azerbaijan (Samra probably scraping into the Final by the thickness of her gold jumpsuit), Hungary (Freddie and his monk are unlikely to stay in the minds of the viewers by act 26) and Italy (jurors will still love Francesca but all the clutter on stage in the world won't keep "No Degrees Of Separation" in my thoughts for long).  7th is probably the first slot that might still stand a outside chance of a decent result:

The charisma of Hovi and incredible emotional power of "Made Of Stars" surely cannot fail to move anyone watching and this should make enough of an impression to keep televoters interested enough to vote later.  It could be viewed as the song that later title contenders are compared against - if Hovi truly 'knocks this out of the park', Israel might have a surprise on their hands...

Poli and her 'Tank Girl' costume, despite being seen by some as a real contender this year, is now being used as filling between some of the real favourites - her presence is welcome at the start of the mid-show but I suspect that she has realistically already done her job, getting Bulgaria to the Final for only the second time in its history.  It does provide a nice contrast between the power ballad form Israel and the contemporary urban sound of Frans for Sweden up next.  "If I Were Sorry" will be memorable for everyone watching but as it is potentially so love or hate, I still don't know how to call it.  I personally love it but I 'get it' - singing at 9th won't necessarily hurt its chances any more than the style of song will.

And then we come to the last four songs in the first half - two favourites and two fillers?

Such an amazing vocalist and still a possible winner but drawing the first half will have made things a lot harder for Dami.  Having said that, SVT/EBU have softened the blow for both her and Amir, giving them as late a slot as possible (13th for Australia and 11th for France) and keeping them apart from each other and Sweden.  Personally, I think that Amir really needed a late Final draw whereas Dami might prove, like Conchita, that singing in the middle of the show isn't a disadvantage as long as your voice is pure and the staging is engaging.  Of all of the first half artists, I would have Israel, Sweden and Australia down as still having a decent chance of winning the whole show.  As for Germany and Poland in amongst Amir and Dami?  Even though they have amazing voices, their straight staging means that the producers no longer see them as anything other than giving the audience a comparison with potential ESC favourites.

And so onto the second half of the show and we are kicking it off in great style!  I wonder if these guys were also pencilled in to start the whole Final if they had drawn the first half but it is a superb way to pick up the pace again after having four relatively slow and quieter tunes in the middle of the show.  Snapping CGI wolves, smoke and lights will make this stand out amazingly well and may well pick Minus One up a decent rack of points that they might not have been expecting...

As for my #2 ranked entry pre-Stockholm, now #1 since Greta was knocked out, I am unsure whether being put between the schlager rock of Cyprus and the uptempo pop-lite trampette performer that is Donny Montell is a good or bad thing.  I still believe that this is the best vocalist at Stockholm this year and the staging and costumes that go with this add to the whole message perfectly.  Having a powerful vocal after the glitz of Minus One and before Lithuania's fairly lightweight entry will make this stand out, in my eyes, but will it stand out all the way until song 26?  I am sure that Sanja will be one of the juror-bait songs this year and will easily be in the top five come the jury voting - will this stick in the mind as much with the public?  Only time will tell - this is my favourite in the Final and I would be delighted if we were going to Belgrade next year...

We then potentially have a sequence that could decide where the trophy is going this year, if the bookies are to be believed.  Croatia at position 17 will provide the massive talking point that we all know it will - 'what is she wearing?'.  What was enough to get Nina through SF1 will, in my opinion, not be enough to get her masses of points in the Final - Barbara Dex definitely, top half unlikely.  The next artist will immediately negate any thoughts of bad costumes - the visual spectacular that is Sergey's 'Milk Tray man', the action hero climbing a wall:
Too much?  The perfect show?  I think this is the natural progression for visuals at Eurovision but it is nowhere near my favourite and I don't think it is now the certainty for the title that some fans think it is.  A probable top five but there are several more interesting back stories and far better vocals in Stockholm that might take the title away from a Russia that expects to be hosting it next year...

From the perfect visual 'obstacle course', we move onto the party tune of 2016:
I have loved this entry and the gorgeous Barei since she won the Spanish NF but there are now a couple of big niggles that are really bothering me, so much so that I could see this dropping away from a very good result (I thought this could challenge for the win at one stage) to finishing on the edges of the top ten.  I really, really hope that the staged fall and the off key backing singer are sorted by the Jury Final today - 'Say Yay!' is still my #3 this year for its sheer exuberance and catchiness but I do fear that where it has been placed it may get overlooked for votes.

We now have a real battle of vocal talent - one from a very handsome guy who has a very contemporary style of singing and that wouldn't sound out of place on Radio 1 versus a stylishly beautiful woman who is classically trained, singing a song that wouldn't sound out of place as the backdrop for any historical documentary.  20th and 21st are decent slots to impress jurors, together with having a totally memorable entry for the public - Latvia get the first slot and have possibly shown that they had a high finish in SF2:
In the words of Ludacris, how low can you go?  Whereas Rykka just bobbed up and down like she needed the toilet, Justs almost doubles over with the amount of effort he puts into his vocals but then looks down the camera and makes all the girls (and some boys) melt with his blue eyes.  A superb voice and very 'of the moment' but the staging might not make this stand out enough, compared to a lot of the other great voices about.  It doesn't help that he is just before the entry with the biggest back story in Stockholm:
Well might Jamala look pleased with that draw, it gave SVT the classic 'Spaghetti Western' scenario - two antagonists with lots of history between them, both wanting their side to come out on top.  Two acts between Ukraine and Russia, which in fact nicely morph between visual spectacle to vocal purity.  This lady's vocal prowess is amazing, her classical training as an opera and jazz singer shines through and every note is hit perfectly.  The other plus is her acting and emotional connection with the camera - the floor and backdrop staging were totally on message as well, although SVT did pan away too much to get the full effect of the fiery tree - note that, Christer!  This deserves totally to be a true contender for the crown - will the back story put people off?  Will it attract televoters, as a lot of the public now have an idea of what this is about?  Will anti-Russian voters use this as their protest vote?  It will be a very interesting scenario this year...

The last five are really a nice gentle run-in to the end of the show, all apart from one.  Malta and Austria have the voices and their positioning in the running order will probably lead to solid top half finishes, maybe top ten depending how much they connect with the televoters.   ZOË is the clear fan favourite this year and it is a delight to hear a song in 100% French but it will not win now, as there are a lot of acts that have taken their entries on massively whilst being in Stockholm, whereas "Loin d'ici" has stayed the same.  Ira is Ira, she's doing a solid job but Malta will not be hitting second place again.  The faster songs to finish off are so, so different - I really have no idea how Georgia made it to the Final, maybe the lightshow blinded everyone so they were pressing the wrong vote buttons?  I joke, it appealed bigtime to a certain genre of viewer and obviously to the jurors but I cannot see this making it out of the bottom five.  Who is the other fast act?
Oh yes, the UK!  Apparently the rehearsals have gone to plan and the guys have been well received by everyone that has seen and heard them play.  Coming up penultimate in the running order shouldn't hinder us this year and will grant us some extra televotes - I am still not kidding myself, this isn't a winning entry when you look at all of the songs this year.  I am still hopeful for a top half finish, top ten at best - I actually have "You're Not Alone" smack bang mid-table and I am sure that most UK Eurovision fans would be more than satisfied with that.  I know that miracles can happen (look at Leicester City) but I really don't see one happening in 2016, especially when you see who is up last:
Oh yes, the statuesque vision that is Iveta Mukuchyan.  She wraps up Eurovision 2016 with her sexually provocative, heavily stylised masterpiece that makes this entry visually engaging and synergises with the amazing vocals that she provides.  Some pundits are viewing singing last as a bad thing, that viewers will have fatigue after 25 other entries and that other songs will be down on the voting slip as their winner already.  Singing 27th last year didn't do Il Volo any harm with the voting public - weren't they top of the televote in 2015 with an entry that was unlike any of the others, that stood alone and caught the eye and ear to displace what had gone before?  Someone at SVT has obviously decided that lightning can strike twice - this is still one of the entries that could win this year...

Looking back the draw, I am confident that we are going to get a great entertainment show - there seems to be a nice mix of slow and fast, ballads and other genres.  The draw was kind in that respect for SVT, unlike the fast half / slow half nightmare that ORF had to contend with in 2015.  I would also have to say that after having drawn their respective halves, no nation can really look at where they have been positioned and complain that the producers have killed their chances of doing as well as their entry could do.  Some have been penalised by the fickle finger of fate dumping them in the first half of the draw but of the favourites in that half (Israel, Sweden, France and Australia), none of them could say that they still don't have a chance, if other factors go their way.  As for the second half, I would say that Serbia, Russia, Ukraine, Latvia and Armenia are still in the running for the win and this still looks, to me at least, to be


Where are my eggs going in the Eurovision basket?  Based on my long-held personal preferences but tempered by what I have seen during rehearsals and the SFs, I would score the entries like this Pre-Final:

This could all change during the Final itself - Spain could drop down a lot if the irritations of the fall and backing singers are still there but I cannot foresee any of the other acts being anything other than what I have seen to date.  Live performances can be an unknown quantity and a slip, physically or verbally, could change a certain win into only a possible top ten - all things being equal, I really hope that a certain multi-linguist who normally sings ska-jazz-funk fusion is celebrating in the winner's press conference as much as she was during the SF2 one:

Okay, Sanja, a lot more than that!